News 24 Desk
New Delhi: The biggest opinion poll so far in Uttar Pradesh election 2012 predicts a hung assembly this time around. The survey conducted by News 24 and OBI / SCL (UK) has thrown up surprising trends in the most populous state of the country.
According to the opinion poll carried out in each assembly segment of UP, no party or alliance will get anywhere close to the majority mark of 202. The Samajwadi party is predicted to emerge as the single largest party with 127 seats which is 30 seats more than they managed in the last election in 2007.
The BSP appears to be the biggest loser with only 108 seats, a loss of 97 seats on their magical tally of 205 in the 2007 election. The Congress also looks set to make major gains with 78 seats which is 56 seats more than their tally of 22 in the last election.
The survey predicts fourth position for the BJP with a total of 57 MLAs, 6 more than their strength of 51 in the last assembly. The Ajit Singh led RLD is predicted to win 6 more seats this time with a tally of 16 seats meaning a total of 94 seats for the Congress-RLD combine. Although a lot of other smaller parties and independents are also in the fray but the survey predicts not more than a total of 17 seats for them meaning they will not be able to play a major decisive role in the post poll scenario.
According to the survey, Congress seems to be making major gains in the regions of Purvanchal and Pashchim Pradesh. It seems set to increase it’s tally by 27 in Purvanchal and by 15 in Pashchim Pradesh causing major losses to the ruling BSP in these regions. It also seems to be getting 14 more seats in Awadh Pradesh than the last election whereas the party does not look to be increasing it’s tally in the region of Bundelkhand.
The survey by News 24 and OBI / SCL (UK) is predicting a vote share of 21 percent for the Congress party which is a gain of 12 percent on their vote share of 9 percent in the 2007 election. The BSP seems to be losing a vote share of 6 percent but that will mean major losses in terms of seats.
The party got 30 percent of the total votes cast in the last election but appears to be getting only 24-25 percent this time. The survey does not predict a major shift in Samajwadi Party’s vote share of 26 percent in 2007 but it looks to be making major gains in terms of seats. The survey gives the BJP 6 more seats than last time but they are faced with a loss of 2.5 percent in their vote share of 20 percent they got in 2007.